Friday, June 1, 2018

Will Trump Help Us Profit From the Jobs Numbers?

Today, President Trump tweeted around 7:24 am that he was "looking forward" to the jobs numbers.  Some traders in the financial markets apparently saw this, sold Treasuries, and bought stocks.  When the jobs numbers came out at 8:30 am, they were better than expected.  Jobs increased by 223,000, about 33,000 more than economists had estimated. The stock market rose more than 250 points in morning trading.  Whoever bought stocks before the jobs report made money--good money.

It turns out the President learned the jobs numbers last night.  The federal government, including the White House, has historically refrained from any comment on the jobs numbers until they are officially released at 8:30 am.  The President broke with tradition.  Whoever among financial markets aficionados were monitoring the President's Twitter address got an advance hint about the jobs numbers.  It's implausible to think the President would have tweeted if the jobs numbers had been tepid or discouraging.  His "looking forward" comment could only mean the numbers would be good.

 Trump shouldn't have tweeted about the jobs numbers before they were officially released.  But it's just in his nature to keep his mouth moving and the Tweeter going.  So maybe this gives us a way to make money from the jobs numbers.  If the President tweets about jobs before the official release, invest in a way that would profit from good numbers.  If the President is silent before the official release, invest in a way that would profit from tepid or bad numbers.  Will this work?  No guarantees, but you never know.  Maybe you could make a nickel or two.

No comments: